{"id":253631,"date":"2018-04-30T11:09:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-30T03:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.ricacorp.com\/?p=253631"},"modified":"2019-04-12T15:24:15","modified_gmt":"2019-04-12T07:24:15","slug":"%e6%a8%93%e5%b8%82%e6%9c%89%e6%b2%92%e6%9c%89%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ricacorp.com.cn\/articles\/2018\/04\/30\/%e6%a8%93%e5%b8%82%e6%9c%89%e6%b2%92%e6%9c%89%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6a13\u5e02\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u6ce1\u6cab\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u67d0\u4e9b\u9280\u884c\u5bb6\u3001\u767c\u5c55\u5546\u3001\u5730\u7522\u4ee3\u7406\u53ca\u6a13\u5e02\u8a55\u8ad6\u54e1\u77e2\u8a00\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u8a00\u4e0b\u4e4b\u610f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6a13\u50f9\u76e1\u7ba1\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5c6c\u7a69\u5065\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u65e2\u7121\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u81ea\u7121\u7206\u7834\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u652f\u6301\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u8ad6\u300d\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u8ad6\u64da\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u69d3\u687f\u6c34\u5e73\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc<\/span>97<\/span>\u5e74\u300d\u53ca\u300c\u7570\u5e38\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u6c34\u5e73\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u7576\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u660e\u986f\u4e0d\u898b\u8e2a\u8de1\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u8ad6\u300d\u5b8f\u63da\u8005\u9019\u4e9b\u8ad6\u64da\u6216\u8ad6\u9ede\u5145\u4efd\u55ce\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u89ba\u5f97\u4e0d\u5927\u5145\u4efd\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

1.     <\/span><\/span>\u4f5c\u70ba\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u4e0a\u50f9\u4f4f\u5b85\u6a13<\/span>(<\/span>\u7279\u5225\u662f\u8c6a\u5b85<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u8cb7\u5bb6\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u5ba2\u591a\u4ee5\u73fe\u91d1\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u4ed8\u6b3e\u8cb7\u6a13\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u4ee5\u73fe\u91d1\u8cfc\u8cb7\uff0c\u81ea\u662f\u4e0d\u898b\u69d3\u687f\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u7947\u662f\u8868\u8c61\uff0c\u5167\u5730\u8cb7\u5bb6\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u505a\u6309\u63ed\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u5167\u5730\u505a\u6309\u63ed\u3002\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8c6a\u5b85\u7684\u5167\u5730\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u90e8\u4efd\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u90a3\u6a23\u6216\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u570b\u5167\u8cb8\u6b3e\u3002\u76f8\u7576\u90e8\u4efd\u69d3\u687f\u5176\u5be6\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u7947\u662f\u96b1\u85cf\u8d77\u4f86\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

2.     <\/span><\/span>\u6a13\u5e02\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6a13\u50f9\u6709\u7121\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u800c\u6a13\u50f9\u6709\u7121\u6ce1\u6cab\u53ca\u6ce1\u6cab\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6a13\u50f9\u8207\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u7684\u812b\u7bc0\u6709\u591a\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6700\u904e\u786c\u7684\u6aa2\u9a57\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6aa2\u9a57\u6a19\u6e96<\/span>(<\/span>\u4f8b\u5982\u7269\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u69d3\u687f\u64cd\u4f5c<\/span>)<\/span>\u90fd\u662f\u5176\u6b21\u3002\u773e\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4e2d\u4e0a\u50f9\u4f4f\u5b85\u6a13\uff0c\u65e9\u5df2\u9060\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e00\u822c\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u8aaa\u5b83\u96e2\u8b5c\u504f\u9ad8\u4ea6\u4e0d\u70ba\u904e\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

3.     <\/span><\/span>\u904e\u53bb<\/span>10<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u6a13\u50f9\u5347\u4e86<\/span>2<\/span>\u500d\u6709\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5de5\u8cc7\u50c5\u5347\u4e86<\/span>70%<\/span>\u5de6\u53f3\uff1b\u6a13\u50f9\u8ca0\u64d4\u80fd\u529b\u6bd4\u7387\u5728<\/span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u662f<\/span>19.4<\/span>\u500d\uff0c\u9664\u570b\u5167\u4e8c\u4e09\u500b\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u5916\uff0c\u5c45\u5168\u7403\u4e4b\u51a0\uff1b\u73fe\u6642\u6574\u9ad4\u6a13\u50f9\u8f03<\/span>1997<\/span>\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f<\/span>(<\/span>\u4ee5\u6975\u5176\u504f\u9ad8\u8457\u540d<\/span>)<\/span>\u9ad8\u51fa\u8d85\u904e<\/span>1<\/span>\u500d\uff1b\u624b\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709<\/span>2018<\/span>\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u7684\u4f9b\u6a13\u8ca0\u64d4\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u540c\u671f\u662f<\/span>66%<\/span>\uff0c\u986f\u8457\u9ad8\u65bc<\/span>1997<\/span>\u81f3<\/span>2<\/span>016<\/span>\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u6578<\/span>45%<\/span>\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7576\u6642\u6a13\u50f9\u5df1\u9060\u9060\u8d85\u51fa\u4e00\u822c\u5e02\u6c11\u7684\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u80af\u5b9a\u66f4\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c64\u6a13\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

4.     <\/span><\/span>\u8aaa\u5e02\u6c11\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4f9b\u6a13\u8ca0\u64d4\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e03\u6210\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8aaa\u6cd5\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u8aa4\u5c0e\u6210\u4efd\uff01\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc\u8aaa\u5b83\u8aa4\u5c0e\uff1f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u500b\u6bd4\u7387\u662f\u5efa\u57fa\u65bc\u7a7a\u524d\u8d85\u4f4e\u7684\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u4eba\u7121\u8fd1\u6182\uff0c\u5fc5\u6709\u9060\u616e\uff0c\u4f9b\u6a13\u662f\u4e00\u500b<\/span>20<\/span>\u81f3<\/span>30<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u4f5c\u6230\u8a08\u5283\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u8d85\u4f4e\u7684\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387<\/span>(2.1%<\/span>\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b<\/span>)<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u96e3\u5f97\u4e00\u898b\u7684\u7279\u4f8b\uff0c\u7d55\u975e\u5e38\u614b\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u4f9b\u5f97\u7dbd\u7dbd\u6709\u9918\uff0c\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u4e09\u3001\u56db\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6349\u895f\u898b\u8098\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u4ee5\u904e\u53bb<\/span>25<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387<\/span>5.5%<\/span>\u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\u6708\u4f9b\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8655\u5883\u5c07\u544a\u51fa\u73fe\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

5.     <\/span><\/span>\u5f9e\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u6216\u542b\u610f\u53bb\u89e3\u6c7a\u722d\u8b70\u4ea6\u4e0d\u5931\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

1978<\/span>\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6<\/span>C.Kindleberger<\/span>\u8a8d\u70ba\uff1a\u300c\u6ce1\u6cab\u72c0\u614b\u9019\u500b\u540d\u8a5e\uff0c\u96a8\u4fbf\u4e00\u9ede\u8aaa\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u6216\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8cc7\u7522\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u9023\u7e8c\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u9661\u7136\u6f32\u50f9\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6703\u4f7f\u4eba\u5011\u7522\u751f\u9084\u8981\u6f32\u50f9\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u53c8\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u8cb7\u4e3b<\/span> \u2500\u2500<\/span> \u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e00\u822c\u53ea\u60f3\u901a\u904e\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7d22\u53d6\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u6f32\u50f9\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u9810\u671f\u7684\u9006\u8f49\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u5c31\u662f\u50f9\u683c\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4ee5\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u544a\u7d42\u6216\u8005\u4ee5\u7e41\u69ae\u7684\u6d88\u9000\u544a\u7d42\u800c\u4e0d\u767c\u751f\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u767e\u5ea6\u767e\u79d1\u89e3\u91cb\uff1a\u300c\u6ce1\u6cab\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u56e0\u6295\u6a5f\u4ea4\u6613\u6975\u5ea6\u6d3b\u8e8d\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u8b49\u5238\u3001\u623f\u5730\u7522\u7b49\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u812b\u96e2\u5be6\u969b\u50f9\u503c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u8868\u9762\u7e41\u69ae\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\u5c31\u662f\u50f9\u683c\u812b\u96e2\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u767e\u5ea6\u767e\u79d1\u53c8\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6240\u8b02\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab\u6307\u7684\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u6295\u6a5f\u9700\u6c42<\/span>(<\/span>\u865b\u5047\u9700\u6c42<\/span>)<\/span>\u4f7f\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u812b\u96e2\u8cc7\u7522\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5b83\u5be6\u8cea\u662f\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u689d\u4ef6\u76f8\u80cc\u96e2\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u81a8\u8139\u3002\u300d\u6211\u5011\u7947\u6d88\u5c07\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u5957\u5165\u6a13\u5e02\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u542b\u7fa9\u4fbf\u8b8a\u6210\u300c\u6240\u8b02\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u6307\u7684\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u6295\u6a5f\u9700\u6c42<\/span>(<\/span>\u865b\u5047\u9700\u6c42<\/span>)<\/span>\u4f7f\u7269\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u812b\u96e2\u7269\u696d\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5b83\u5be6\u8cea\u662f\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u689d\u4ef6\u76f8\u80cc\u96e2\u7684\u7269\u696d\u50f9\u683c\u81a8\u8139\u3002\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u7a2e\u5c0d\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u91cb\u7fa9\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u69d3\u687f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u9ad8\u69d3\u687f\u501f\u8cb8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4f5c\u70ba\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6216\u4e3b\u8981\u9451\u8a3c\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5931\u4e4b\u504f\u9817\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u4e09\u7a2e\u91cb\u7fa9\u6240\u63cf\u7e6a\u7684\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u5012\u548c\u9999\u6e2f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6a13\u5e02\u73fe\u72c0\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u543b\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7d9c\u5408\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6a13\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0d\u50c5\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5341\u5206\u56b4\u91cd\uff01\u4eba\u5011\u6b64\u523b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u5927\u8b66\u89ba\u6a13\u50f9\u5df2\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f97\u5341\u5206\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u7686\u56e0\u8d85\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f5c\u795f\u3002\u8d85\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u5149\u9ebb\u9189\u4eba\u5011\u770b\u4e0d\u6e05\u81ea\u5df1\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4f9b\u6b3e\u8ca0\u64d4\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u9084\u9ebb\u9189\u4eba\u5011\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u6a13\u50f9\u65e9\u5df2\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6ce1\u6cab\u6b63\u65e5\u8da8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u65e5\u5f8c\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u5229\u6de1\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>(<\/span>\u4f8b\u5982\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u98c6\u5347<\/span>)<\/span>\u885d\u64ca\u4e0b\uff0c\u8f5f\u7136\u7206\u7834\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u6703\u96a8\u5373\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8abf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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