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\n
\n\u4f5c\u8005\u986f\u7136\u628a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u770b\u6210\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u53eb\u6211\u5011\u8981\u7576\u5fc3\u3002\u4f46\u6309\u7167\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4eba\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e16\u4e8b\u5145\u6eff\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\uff0c\u53eb\u4eba\u7576\u5fc3\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u3002
\n
\n\u81ea\u5f9eNas\u00adsim Nicholas Taleb\u6240\u5beb\u7684\u300aThe Black Swan\u300b\u51fa\u7248\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u5c31\u6210\u4e86\u4e16\u4eba\u6700\u559c\u6b61\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5c0d\u9019\u7406\u8ad6\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u751a\u4e86\u4e86\uff0c\u5f15\u7528\u53ea\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u8d95\u6642\u9ae6\u5427\u4e86\u3002
\n
\n\u5176\u5be6\u6240\u8b02\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5229\u7528\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u53bb\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u9760\u679a\u8209\u8207\u6b78\u7d0d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e16\u754c\u4e26\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u3002\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u539f\u5148\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7d93\u9a57\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5929\u9d5d\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u5f97\u51fa\u300c\u51e1\u662f\u5929\u9d5d\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\u300d\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u5f8c\u4f86\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u53bb\u5230\u5357\u534a\u7403\uff0c\u624d\u5ffd\u7136\u767c\u89ba\u539f\u4f86\u5929\u9d5d\u662f\u6709\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u51e1\u662f\u5929\u9d5d\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u5c31\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u53ea\u9700\u4e00\u96bb\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u63a8\u7ffb\u5343\u842c\u96bb\u5929\u9d5d\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\u679a\u8209\u3002\u82f1\u570b\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u5361\u723e\u2027\u6ce2\u666e\u7a31\u9019\u505a\u908f\u8f2f\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u539f\u5247\u3002
\n
\n\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u77e5\u8b58\u90fd\u662f\u5f9e\u7d93\u9a57\u4e2d\u5f97\u4f86\uff0c\u898b\u5f97\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee5\u70ba\u4e8b\u7269\u90fd\u61c9\u8a72\u5982\u662f\uff0c\u8996\u70ba\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u9999\u6e2f\u80a1\u6c11\u898b\u532f\u8c50\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u9577\u671f\u8655\u65bc\u4e00\u767e\u5143\u4e00\u80a1\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee5\u70ba\u532f\u8c50\u8d77\u78bc\u503c\u4e00\u767e\u5143\u4e00\u80a1\uff0c\u8c48\u77e5\u532f\u8c50\u53ef\u4ee5\u8dcc\u5230\u56db\u5341\u591a\u5143\u4e00\u80a1\u3002\u53c8\u5982\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u5143\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5403\u9999\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u53ef\u6703\u60f3\u5230\u5c07\u4f86\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u62d2\u6536\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n
\n\u5361\u723e\u2027\u6ce2\u666e\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5f9e\u7d93\u9a57\u4e2d\u6b78\u7d0d\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u662f\u7121\u5f9e\u88ab\u8b49\u5be6\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u88ab\u8b49\u507d\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u4e2d\uff0c\u5929\u5713\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u74b0\u7e5e\u5730\u7403\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u4eba\u624d\u76f8\u4fe1\u5730\u624d\u662f\u5713\u7684\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5011\u6bcf\u5929\u770b\u5230\u592a\u967d\u5f9e\u6771\u65b9\u5347\u8d77\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u662f\u932f\u7684\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u5730\u7403\u81ea\u897f\u5411\u6771\u65cb\u8f49\u5427\u4e86\u3002
\n
\n\u5f9e\u9019\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u6211\u5011\u4fe1\u4ee5\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u8207\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u5c07\u4f86\u90fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u88ab\u8b49\u660e\u70ba\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u78ba\u8a8d\u751a\u9ebc\u662f\u771f\u7684\u3001\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u78ba\u8a8d\u751a\u9ebc\u662f\u5047\u7684\u3001\u932f\u7684\u3002\u6211\u5011\u503c\u5f97\u64c1\u6709\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a4d\u7d2f\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u662f\u5c0d\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a8d\u8b58\u3002\u6c42\u77e5\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u8a8d\u8b58\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u662f\u5361\u723e\u2027\u6ce2\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8b49\u507d\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u3002
\n
\n\u8981\u300c\u8b49\u507d\u300d\u5c31\u5f97\u6709\u6279\u5224\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u6562\u65bc\u6311\u6230\u6b0a\u5a01\uff1b\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u624d\u6703\u4e0d\u65b7\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4eba\u4ea6\u9700\u8981\u6709\u8b19\u865b\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u88ab\u300c\u8b49\u507d\u300d\u7684\uff1b\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u4eba\u624d\u6703\u4e0d\u81f3\u65bc\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u80e1\u4f5c\u5984\u70ba\uff0c\u786c\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u5957\u5f37\u52a0\u8af8\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u982d\u4e0a\u3002
\n
\n\u6b63\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5361\u723e\u2027\u6ce2\u666e\u6700\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u70cf\u6258\u90a6\u5f0f\u7684\u793e\u6703\u6539\u9769\u5de5\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5be7\u9858\u65ac\u4ef6\u5f0f\u7684\u53bb\u5617\u8a66\uff1b\u9019\u6a23\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u9444\u6210\u5927\u932f\uff0c\u4ed6\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u201dpiecemeal social engineering\u201d\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6703\u5728\u751a\u9ebc\u6642\u5019\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u904e\u5ea6\u6709\u70ba\u7684\u9577\u9060\u7684\u793e\u6703\u898f\u5283\u3002
\n(\u8f49\u8f09\u81ea2009\u5e743\u67089\u65e5am730C\u89c0\u9ede)
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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